MTP: CRUZ ON CRITICISM FROM IA. GOV. BRANSTAD: “HIS SON MAKES HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS LOBBYING ON ETHANOL”

Sen. Rubio on ‘Gang of Eight’ involvement: “Look, I tried to fix the problem”

Sen. Sanders on raising taxes: “Hillary Clinton will be the problem” with Democrats

Sen. Paul: “Our strength is with the younger voter”

JAN. 31, 2016 — Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) responded to criticism on his ethanol stance from Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, telling “Meet the Press” moderator Chuck Todd: “His son is a lobbyist who makes hundreds of thousands of dollars lobbying on ethanol. So his family makes a ton of money.”

Cruz, who has been attacked for his position on an ethanol mandate, also discussed the possibility of facing a general election match with former Sec. Hillary Clinton and more. Watch the full interview: http://nbcnews.to/1PqKgRa.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) also addressed immigration and his role in the ‘Gang of Eight’: “That’s not going to be the law that we’re going to pass when I’m president.” Watch the full interview here: http://nbcnews.to/1PqKgRa.

On the Democratic side of the 2016 race, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) addressed his tight race with Clinton, admitting he doesn’t think his platform of raising taxes will hurt House Democrats: “No, I think in fact, Hillary Clinton will be the problem…. Our campaign is the campaign that is generating excitement and energy that will result in a high voter turnout.” He added: “Democrats win when voter turnout is high.” Watch the full interview: http://nbcnews.to/1Q406NV.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) joined the panel to address the final Iowa poll, telling Chuck Todd: “We think we might get twice as much as what’s in there or three times as much. We think we can do much better than expected, we think we even have a chance of winning.” Watch: http://nbcnews.to/1TvcBYv.

Joining the show for more insight and analysis were David Brody of CBN, Tom Brokaw of NBC News, Jennifer Jacobsof The Des Moines Register, and Joy-Ann Reid of MSNBC.

# # #

MANDATORY CREDIT: NBC NEWS’ “MEET THE PRESS”

Mandatory credit to NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on first reference.
The onscreen “Meet the Press” credit must be clearly visible and unobstructed at all times in any image, video clip, or other form of media.
Embedded web video must stream from the NBCNews.com media player with the unobstructed credit as described above.

# # #

VIDEO: Cruz on Energy: I Support an ‘All of the Above’ Energy Strategy http://nbcnews.to/1QACfrX

VIDEO: Cruz: ‘A Vote for Marco is a Vote for Amnesty’ http://nbcnews.to/1PNRhxz

VIDEO: Cruz: ‘I Have Treated Every Member of the Senate With Civility’ http://nbcnews.to/1UAnjLm

VIDEO: Is Rubio’s Immigration Position Holding Him Back in Iowa? http://nbcnews.to/1m7elte

VIDEO: Rubio on Iowa Chances: ‘We Just Want to Get As Many Votes As We Can’ http://nbcnews.to/1nGkEWh

VIDEO: Sanders: President Obama Has Done a ‘Fantastic Job’ http://nbcnews.to/20ggw0i

VIDEO: ‘Hillary Clinton Will Be the Problem’ http://nbcnews.to/1SkJnMG

# # #

Below are highlights, video clips, and a rush transcript of today’s program. Additional show video is available online atwww.MeetThePressNBC.com. Join the conversation online with hashtag #MTP.

What’s a Caucus? http://nbcnews.to/1Q3SGdI
Panel: Handicapping the Democratic Race Ahead of the Iowa Caucus http://nbcnews.to/20g88Ow
Undecided Iowan Voter Comes Under Assault By Adshttp://nbcnews.to/1PqKpUU
Will Trump Supporters Show Up to Caucus?http://nbcnews.to/1WV8DZ0
#comPRESSed: Catch the Show in 2 Minuteshttp://nbcnews.to/1Tvcjki

# # #

Meet the Press – Jan. 31, 2016

(BEGIN TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

This Sunday: the Iowa Caucuses. The candidates have had their say, now it’s time for Iowa voters to have theirs. Can Donald Trump win here and just simply start to roll?

DONALD TRUMP:

I don’t even think I have to campaign anymore. Why am I even wasting my time?

CHUCK TODD:

Can Ted Cruz beat Trump and turn this into a two-man race?

TED CRUZ:

The time for all that media noise has passed. This is your time.

CHUCK TODD:

What about Marco Rubio? Does he finish second and become the chief challenger to Trump?

MARCO RUBIO:

Well you see some deceitful things going on in the last minute…

CHUCK TODD:

Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul are all with me, here live. Plus, what will the latest email story do to Hillary Clinton’s chances?

HILLARY CLINTON:

I never sent or received any email marked classified.

CHUCK TODD:

Can Bernie Sanders pull the upset and end the idea that her nomination is inevitable?

BERNIE SANDERS:

They’re going to throw everything they have at us.

CHUCK TODD:

Sanders joins us this morning. I’m Chuck Todd in Des Moines, Iowa. Joining me here for insight and analysis are Tom Brokaw of NBC News, Jennifer Jacobs of The Des Moines Register, Joy-Ann Reid of MSNBC, and David Brody of the Christian Broadcasting Network. Cruz, Rubio, Paul, Sanders, the candidates are all here. We’re going to do our own caucus. Welcome to Sunday, and a special edition of Meet the Press.

ANNOUNCER:

From Des Moines, Iowa, this is a special edition of Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

Good Sunday morning. They’re here, the Iowa caucuses. That all happens tomorrow night. We’re here in Des Moines at the West End Architectural Salvage, a coffee shop that also sells custom and vintage furniture. And of course, the candidates are here. All here. All over Iowa, selling themselves.

In fact, on this last full day before the caucuses, the 13 candidates campaigning in Iowa are holding 38 events, making their last-minute pitches, hoping Iowa becomes their first step on the road to the nomination. We couldn’t be more excited or more heavily caffeinated. So stay with us for the next hour on our version of Christmas Eve of American politics.

CHUCK TODD:

And we start with the latest Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, let’s put it up on the screen on the Republican side. Trump has a five point lead over Ted Cruz, 28-23. Marco Rubio in third at 15, and Ben Carson still in double digits at ten, with Rand Paul at five. In the Democratic race, it’s Hillary Clinton continuing to hold a narrow three-point lead over Bernie Sanders, 45-42. We’ve got a lot to get to this morning.

The latest development in the Hillary Clinton email story, Bernie Sanders will join us later. Marco Rubio and Rand Paul are also standing by here at West End Salvage. But we begin with Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who by his own admission, needs a win here in Iowa to keep the Trump campaign from being, in his word, unstoppable. Senator Cruz, welcome back to Meet the Press.

TED CRUZ:

Chuck, good morning. Good to be with you.

CHUCK TODD:

Your campaign, I take it, doesn’t believe The Des Moines Register poll. You believe you’re ahead. But what was interesting that I found in The Des Moines Register poll, is if you add up the other candidates that are going after evangelical voters, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, they’re 14%. If you add it to the 23%, you’d be the runaway winner here. Is Ben Carson going to cost you Iowa?

TED CRUZ:

Listen, at the end of the day, this race was always going to come down to do conservatives unite? Ten months ago, you and I visited right at the outset. Now, if you had told me ten months ago that the day before the Iowa caucuses, we would be in a statistical tie for first place, I would’ve been thrilled and astonished and we are thrilled and astonished. And the question is going to come 36 hours from now, do conservatives come together? You know, in past cycle, what Washington has always wanted is to splinter and divide conservatives. If that happens–

CHUCK TODD:

So you’re worried about that a little bit?

TED CRUZ:

Oh look, I’m always worried about it. The only way I know how to run, you know, there’s the two joke, “There are two ways to run, scared, and unopposed.” The only way I know how to run is scared, and we’re going to run hard every minute. You know, tomorrow we’re going to complete the full Grassley. We will have been to all 99 counties in Iowa. We are campaigning one after the other, asking for the votes of the men and women of Iowa. And really focusing on the grassroots and the ground game.

CHUCK TODD:

And you do believe if Trump wins here, he’s unstoppable?

TED CRUZ:

Look, not necessarily.

CHUCK TODD:

What does that mean? I mean, you’ve said it. We could, you know, our friend Mr. Brody caught you on tape there.

TED CRUZ:

Actually, what I said is he could be.

CHUCK TODD:

Okay.

TED CRUZ:

That Iowa, his winning here would give him momentum. No doubt about it. And he’s in a strong position in New Hampshire. And the people of Iowa, if they want a strong, principled conservative, the people of Iowa can impact that powerfully 36 hours from now, Monday night at 7:00 p.m. And, you know, I think the stakes are too high to get this wrong.

You know, the most common sentiment you hear from people is they’re frustrated with Washington. They’re frustrated with politicians. They say one thing and do another. We can’t get burned again. And that frustration, the reason that I see conservatives uniting behind our campaign, is they’re looking for a consistent conservative. Someone they can trust to be a fiscal conservative, a social conservative, and a national security conservative.

CHUCK TODD:

You know, at the beginning of this month, you led in the polls. Donald Trump went after you sometimes viciously, okay, on various things. And it seemed to work. The reason Trump’s ahead is his attacks on you. Are you tough enough to take a punch?

TED CRUZ:

Oh listen, anyone who has millions or tens of millions of dollars of attack ads run against them, it’s going to have an impact. You know–

CHUCK TODD:

Will you be able to survive a race with Hillary Clinton?

TED CRUZ:

Oh absolutely.

CHUCK TODD:

It’s going to be tough.

TED CRUZ:

Absolutely.

CHUCK TODD:

I mean, this is just two weeks of being back.

TED CRUZ:

Listen. The fact that they’re all shooting at me, six weeks ago, everyone’s shooting at Trump. Now all the Republican candidates are shooting at me. That reflects a change in this race. And I’ll note, Donald, you’re right. And six weeks ago, Donald thought I was terrific, I was his friend, he was singing my praises. Then his poll numbers started dropping, our numbers started surging.

And suddenly, he began blasting me, not on policy, not on substance, but on personal insults and attacks. And Chuck, my approach consistently, both before and after he started doing that, is not to respond in turn. I think the people of Iowa deserve better than insults. And so my focus is policy and substance and record. And who will be a consistent, proven conservative.

CHUCK TODD:

Why did you suddenly stop going after Trump on paid ads and going after, in your campaign, attacking Marco Rubio? How concerned are you about Senator Rubio catching you here in Iowa?

TED CRUZ:

Listen, we are drawing contrasts. Both Trump and Marco are attacking me. They’re attacking me with all their might. And we’re drawing contrasts. And the contrasts are clear. And the contrasts, by the way, are substantive and policy based. A vote for Marco Rubio is a vote for amnesty. And a vote for Donald Trump is a vote for ObamaCare.

If you look at their positions, Marco Rubio right now as a presidential candidate, is advocating amnesty. Advocating citizenship for 12 million people here illegally. And Donald Trump, right now as a candidate, is advocating full-on expanding ObamaCare to make it socialized medicine.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have the identical position on healthcare. Which is they want to put the government in charge of you and your doctor. Now my views are polar opposites of both of those. If I’m elected, there will be no amnesty, we will secure the border. And if I’m elected, we will repeal every word of ObamaCare. And so that gives a clear and simple choice for the voters.

CHUCK TODD:

Let’s talk about two issues here that seem to be potentially tripping you up here in Iowa. One is ethanol. You have come out against these subsidies, you called it a “gravy train.” A lot of Iowans, including the Republican Governor doesn’t like it. But I want to put these numbers. Isn’t it understandable why Iowans like these subsidies? Ethanol biodiesel support more than 46,000 jobs, they’ve generated $2.5 billion in income for Iowa households. This is a state with unemployment under 4%. This is an important part of their economy.

TED CRUZ:

No, absolutely. And listen, my view on energy, we should pursue all of the above. We ought to be pursuing every energy source.

CHUCK TODD:

You’re going to be hurting their economy.

TED CRUZ:

But with no mandates and subsidies. And you know what, the people who are attacking me on this are lobbyists and Democrats. And the reason they’re attacking–

CHUCK TODD:

Terry Branstad, is he a lobbyist or a Democrat?

TED CRUZ:

No, his son is a lobbyist who makes hundreds of thousands of dollars lobbying on ethanol. So his family makes a ton of money. And the lobbyists very much want to keep Iowa focused on the ethanol mandate, because it keeps Iowa dependent on Washington. It means every year, they’ve got to go back to Washington and maintain the mandate. The lobbyists get paid, the politicians get paid.

I’m going to eliminate all the subsidies. No subsidies for oil and gas, no subsidies for anybody. But the other piece that is very important and that’s resonating is I’m going to also tear down the EPA’s ethanol blend wall, which means make it legal to sell mid-level blends of ethanol. And that, in turn, can expand ethanol’s share of the marketplace by 60%, but not based on mandates or subsidies, based on the free market.

CHUCK TODD:

By the way, it’s so clear–

TED CRUZ:

And that message of resonance–

CHUCK TODD:

It’s so clear you’ve spent a lot of time in Iowa. Look what you’re talking about, mid-level fuel cells, all these combinations. But at the end of the day, how does this not hurt the Iowa economy? And that’s what Governor Branstad is saying. A vote for you is going to hurt the economy.

TED CRUZ:

But Chuck, the point I made, this actually would expand the Iowa economy. Right now, ethanol is banging into the R.F.S. It’s essentially, the blend wall is a cap. As people in Iowa know, as I travel around and do town halls, ethanol’s not expanding its market share, because the EPA is preventing it from doing it. And by the way, no other candidate has pledged to remove the blend wall.

No other candidate is focusing on the future for ethanol. And you know someone who joined me on my bus tour across the state? A fellow named Dave VanderGriend. He built more than half of the ethanol plants in the state of Iowa. He is the one who estimates that you could see a 60% market increase. And you know who’s hurt by my plan? The lobbyists in Washington. And the people who are helped are Iowa farmers and jobs here in the state of Iowa.

CHUCK TODD:

One final question. You talk about Ronald Reagan a lot. You talk about you want to sort of have a presidency like his. He famously had a terrific relationship with Democrat Tip O’Neill. You got stuck down there. Are you and Nancy Pelosi going to be able to get stuff done?

TED CRUZ:

Look, absolutely. And–

CHUCK TODD:

How?

TED CRUZ:

–my entire time in the Senate, I have treated every member of the Senate with civility and respect. As you’ve seen in this race–

CHUCK TODD:

And you think Mitch McConnell would say that?

TED CRUZ:

Look, as others attack me, I don’t respond in kind. I don’t engage. When Donald Trump calls me a Canadian anchor baby, I don’t respond with an insult. In fact, I’ll sing Donald’s praises. I like Donald. I think he’s bold and brash. Now, I think his policies are liberal. I think he’s been too willing to cut a deal and get along with Democrats and grow government and support cronyism.

But that’s a policy distinction. And at the end of the day, why was Reagan able to change the country? Because he built a grassroots movement, the Reagan revolution, that turns this country around. That’s what we’re doing. We’ve got 12,000 volunteers in Iowa. And it’s all about turnout. If conservatives want a principled conservative to not get burned again, they need to come out Monday night, 7:00 p.m.

CHUCK TODD:

And I’m going to leave it there. Senator Ted Cruz, you’ve got to go finish the full Grassley. We’ll let you go.

TED CRUZ:

Excellent, thank you Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

Thanks for coming out and good to see you, Ted.

TED CRUZ:

Take care.

CHUCK TODD:

My next guest, Florida Senator Marco Rubio has been under sustained attack from the Cruz campaign in recent days. In fact, take a look at this ad they put out on Rubio’s immigration status.

(BEGIN TAPE)

MARCO RUBIO:

I am not and I will never support, never have and never will support any effort to grant blanket legalization amnesty.

RUSH LIMBAUGH:

Marco Rubio was part of a Gang of Eight trying to secure amnesty.

CHRIS WALLACE:

One of the architects of the plan, Senator Marco Rubio–

CHRIS WALLACE:

You are giving legal status to people who have broken the law.

RUSH LIMBAUGH:

It was Marco Rubio who was a member of the Gang of Eight and Ted Cruz that wasn’t.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

And Senator Marco Rubio joins me now. Senator, welcome back to Meet the Press.

MARCO RUBIO:

Thank you.

CHUCK TODD:

You just had a nice, friendly hug with Senator Cruz there. That’s not such a friendly ad here. And it goes at the issue of the Gang of Eight. So–

MARCO RUBIO:

Well, actually it–

CHUCK TODD:

Can you just–

MARCO RUBIO:

No, no, no, but let me correct it-

CHUCK TODD:

Can you explain the issue of amnesty? Define amnesty for us.

MARCO RUBIO:

Well, first– The ad is first deceitful. It actually talks about cap and trade. And it literally clips my statement. Like, it stops my statement right when I start explaining that I’m against cap and trade and big government mandates. The Gang of Eight was a bill that was, that was dealt with three years ago. It was an effort to fix our immigration laws.

It was the best that could be done in a Senate that was controlled by Harry Reid at the time. And then the hope was that the House would take it up and make it better. But it was a way to start that. And in the absence of progress, that’s how Barack Obama has now forced on America not one but two unconstitutional executive orders that seek to actually legalize people here with no enforcement.

Now, that’s not the way we’re going to do it when I’m president. When I’m president, when I’m the nominee, we’re going to help, we’re going to keep our majority in the House and Senate. And we are going to pass first and foremost immigration laws that secure our border. And until that is in place, we’re not going to be able to do anything else. That’s the lesson of the last ten years.

The American people, we do not have the political support to do it all at once. They do not trust the federal government to enforce immigration laws. And as a result, the key that unlocks the door to be able to make progress on immigration is to bring illegal immigration under control first. And we will do that when I’m president.

CHUCK TODD:

I’ve had a lot of Republicans in Iowa that I’ve talked to who really like you. And then they say, “Why won’t he repudiate the Gang of Eight?”

MARCO RUBIO:

Well, that’s not how we’re going to do it when I’m president. I mean, that’s not going to be the law that we’re going to pass when I’m president.

CHUCK TODD:

But do you regret ever being involved?

MARCO RUBIO:

Look, I tried to fix the problem. This is a real problem. And where are we today? We are worse off today than we were five years ago. We have more illegal immigrants here. We have two unconstitutional executive orders on amnesty. I went on– to Washington to fix a problem.

Immigration is a serious problem. It impacts my state. And the state that I live in, we are impacted by illegal immigration in a dramatic way. This issue has to be dealt with. And each year, it gets harder to solve, more difficult to solve, but it is now clear, more than ever before, that you are not going to be able to do anything on immigration until you first bring illegal immigration under control and prove it to people. Not just pass a law that says it. And that’s how we’re going to do it when I’m president.

CHUCK TODD:

You have alluded to the fact that a majority is not yet, sort of, where you might be on what to do, for instance, with the undocumented. Do you think this is what’s holding your campaign back? That the difference between third and second or third and first for you is your immigration–

MARCO RUBIO:

No, look, we have 11 people running for president that are running competitive campaigns. We have 11 people on the ground in Iowa spending money campaigning, working hard themselves to gain voters. So a lot of this is segmented right now. Ted Cruz is clearly the frontrunner in Iowa. I mean, he has 10,000 volunteers. He’s spent millions of dollars here. He got every endorsement that he wanted.

And so we always knew that going in. But we feel really good about the progress that we’re making here. We have taken on more negative attacks than every other candidate combined. Jeb Bush’s super PAC has basically spent $30 million, a third of its money, attacking me. And yet we keep growing, and we feel real positive about it. We feel positive about what it’s going to mean on Monday night in Iowa and what it’s going to mean a week later in New Hampshire.

CHUCK TODD:

You know, you brought up the cap and trade issue. I want to actually play the full quote of what you said. Here it is.

(BEGIN TAPE)

MARCO RUBIO:

Florida should position itself for what I believe is inevitable and that is a federal cap and trade program. Florida should do everything it can to be an early complier so that it can access early compliance funds and so that it can help influence what that cap and trade looks at the federal level. And so I am in favor of giving the Department of Environmental Protection a mandate that they go out and design a cap and trade or a carbon tax program and bring it back to the legislature for ratification sometime in the next two years.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

All right. We gave you full context there.

MARCO RUBIO:

No you didn’t. You cut it. There’s more to that clip.

CHUCK TODD:

Well, explain. It does come across as you’re saying it’s inevitable, so Florida’s got to prepare–

MARCO RUBIO:

Yeah, but that’s not the full clip. What you just played is not the full clip. Right after that, I said, “I’m not in favor of implementing it. I’m in favor of them bringing it back to the legislature. I do not support big government mandates.” The context of that, that was in 2006 and ’07, when the leading candidates for president were John McCain, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton.

CHUCK TODD:
And they all–

MARCO RUBIO:

All three supported cap and trade. And I was the speaker of the House and I said, “There is a chance that the federal government will pass cap and trade. I’m not in favor of it. But if they do, we have to be prepared to comply with that requirement, even if we don’t like it. And I don’t want it to cost the state of Florida money to have to comply.”

Everyone knew it. The Democrats knew that position. And when Charlie Crist proposed cap and trade, I was the first person to speak out against it in a full op-ed in The Miami Herald. But you didn’t play the full clip. There is a com–

CHUCK TODD:

There’s even more?

MARCO RUBIO:

Right after that, there’s even more.

CHUCK TODD:

But, you know what, this gets at sort of what I think is the challenge for all of the candidates on both sides, is you’re basically saying, “Look, you’ve got to sometimes govern with what you have, not with what you want.

MARCO RUBIO:

Right.

CHUCK TODD:

But the voters, they want, they want more than that. The voters seem angry. They seem– They’re not satisfied with this idea that, you know, you’re doing the “You’ve got to work with what you have in Washington, not with what you want.”

MARCO RUBIO:

You know, I don’t think that’s true. I think voters understand that to solve problems, it is going to take the ability to work with people that you don’t agree with on a bunch of other issues. But we’re not going to compromise on principles–

CHUCK TODD:

They’re not rewarding those candidates. They’re not rewarding those candidates much right now…

MARCO RUBIO:

Look, I think people understand my higher-education ideas. I think student loan debt in America is a huge problem. We’re not going to have free college, but I do think there’s a bipartisan way to work on helping with student loans. That’s why I worked with Mark Warner on it, and I’ve worked with other people on this sort of issue.

There are issues that we’re not going to agree on, repealing ObamaCare. That’s why we have elections. So I think if there’s a chance to work together, and you don’t have to betray your principles, you work together. But there are issues where you can’t do that. And that’s why we have elections and debate and all those sorts of things in America.

CHUCK TODD:

Why are you personally the most popular Republican candidate pretty much here, you and Ben Carson neck and neck here, but overall, nationally, you have the highest favorable rating. Why aren’t you ahead?

MARCO RUBIO:

Again, I think it goes back to the fact that there are now 11 people running for president of the United States, running competitive campaigns. I mean, these are not third-rate candidates. These are former governors, CEOs of major companies. Serious people. And former Senator Rick Santorum. And they’re campaigning hard. And so you’ve got the voters have a lot of choices. I think once the race narrows, I feel very good about our prospects.

CHUCK TODD:

Where do you win? That’s the question a lot of your donors– Where do you win?

MARCO RUBIO:

I know, you’ll need to ask the political strategist. I’m running for president of the United States. I’m not running–

CHUCK TODD:

But you’ll need to win eventually.

MARCO RUBIO:

And we will. And here’s how we win. We win by having more delegates than anyone else, and more than half the delegates. And I’m very comfortable and confident that we’re going to achieve that. But I don’t think you’re going to really get clarity on this race until the race narrows a little bit.

CHUCK TODD:

What’s a good night for you tomorrow?

MARCO RUBIO:

We just want to get as many votes as we can. We feel real positive about where it’s going to lead to. Again, not all expectation game for us, we always knew we were an underdog in Iowa. Other people, I have a lot more people on the ground here, they spend a lot more money. But we’re going to have a good night. We’re going to have a lot of support. And I’m very excited about it.

CHUCK TODD:

Senator Rubio

MARCO RUBIO:

Thank you.

CHUCK TODD:

Have a good– be safe on the trail. And I think we’ll see you in New Hampshire as well. When we come back, are Iowa Democrats ready to vote for a 74-year-old socialist who’s not even a registered member of the Democratic party? We’re about to find out. Senator Bernie Sanders joins me in a moment.

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. It’s hard to turn around here in Des Moines and not bump into a journalist. But we decided we’re only going to grab four really good ones. And so this morning, who do we have? Our maestro here, Tom Brokaw of NBC News, Jennifer Jacobs, chief politics reporter for The Des Moines Register, MSNBC national correspondent Joy-Ann Reid, and David Brody, chief political correspondent for the Christian Broadcasting Network. David, I’m going to start with you because look, Ted Cruz is make or break, depending if he can unite, he said it was uniting conservatives, but it’s uniting evangelicals.

DAVID BRODY

It really is. And you touched on it in that interview. Look, Ted Cruz goes around in all of these campaign stops and says, “We need, if you’re going to vote for Ben Carson, nice guy, but please don’t.” And you know, he goes on. Mike Huckabee and all these folks.

And you are right, if you actually add the numbers up, Ted Cruz runs away here in Iowa with it. But the problem is, is that not only does he have to contend with the fact that others are going to vote for Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, and others, Donald Trump is taking 19 percent as we see in this latest poll, of evangelicals. Which is, I know, shocking to folks, and an Excedrin moment for folks.

CHUCK TODD:

You know, I was trying to get, and we’re all trying to get a feel, of who the Trump people are, who the Cruz people are, and all this stuff. So we put together a compilation of some voters I’ve talked to over the last couple of days. Take a listen.

(BEGIN TAPE)

FEMALE VOTER:

I’m for Ted Cruz because our country was founded on the Bible and the Constitution.

MALE VOTER:

If we get Ted Cruz in there, they’re going to start getting in line and doing what we need to get done.

FEMALE VOTER:

My second choice would be Marco Rubio.

CHUCK TODD:

How do you feel about Donald Trump?

FEMALE VOTER:

I watch his show. But I don’t know, I’m afraid of what he might do once he’s in office.

CHUCK TODD:

Why are you caucusing for Trump?

MALE VOTER:

Because he’s going to make America great again.

FEMALE VOTER:

I think everybody’s a little bit afraid. Americans are afraid, the world is afraid.

MALE VOTER:

I hope he’s tough on illegal immigration, like he says.

MALE VOTER:

I believe he can keep our country safe.

FEMALE VOTER:

He is not politically correct and I am fine with that.

CHUCK TODD:

Would you be caucusing if he wasn’t running?

MALE VOTER:

Probably not.

MALE VOTER:

I’ve never caucused before.

CHUCK TODD:

And how long have you been living in Iowa?

MALE VOTER:

Forty-nine years.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

There it is. My Buffalo Bills hat guy there. He has lived here his whole life and has never caucused. And he’s a Donald Trump– That’s who Donald Trump needs to show up. Are they going to show up?

JENNIFER JACOBS:

Well, you never know. You know, it’s interesting to me that Ted Cruz has all the high points in this, in Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll. Everybody likes him better than Donald Trump. They think he has the greatest knowledge, in-depth experience, but Donald Trump is the guy that they think would be best to fight the U.S. enemies. And that’s a big deal in this race. So, you know, everyone says that Donald Trump’s organization is suspect, but people really have faith in him right now.

JOY-ANN REID:

And I think you could say too that Donald Trump also has the most loyal backers, right? If you look at the polling, he’s got the most unchangeable voters. They’re sticking with him. And so that’s I think why you’re seeing more intramural fighting, particularly between Cruz and Rubio, because Rubio’s are among the least adherent.

And so I think what you’re seeing with Ted Cruz is he’s trying to not only take away the Ben Carson supporters and to build him up with the evangelicals, but also go after those Rubio supporters, for whom he’s actually the number one second choice.

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah, it’s interesting Tom. I’m going to put up the favorable ratings from Jennifer’s poll here in The Des Moines Register, the two most popular people, Republicans, are the guys running third and fourth, Ben Carson and Marco Rubio.

TOM BROKAW:

Yeah.

CHUCK TODD:

The guy in first is the least favorable of our top four, Donald Trump. It goes to the point. It’s loyalty but not growth.

TOM BROKAW:

It’s loyalty within the Republican party and within different portions of the Republican party. I really think that a big piece of what Donald Trump has going for him is the celebrity culture that we live in in America. And he is everywhere, he comes in with that big airplane. And people say, “I’d like to have a little piece of that.”

Here’s a guy running strongly among evangelicals, been married three times, he had affairs around the world with other people, he went broke a couple of times. They blow right through that. So we’re playing in a different ballpark this year.

DAVID BRODY:

Well, it’s a good point. I would say this, that there’s a huge block of evangelical voters that are the sick and tired evangelical voter. This election specifically, those folks are ruling the day. And, you know, evangelicals are sick of being played as political pawns for years.

I mean, look at the Federal Marriage Amendment back in 2004, if I can go back in history for a moment. But George W. Bush campaigned on that. Told evangelicals get out the polls, and Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman dropped it like a hot potato. The point is, they’re done being played. They believe Donald Trump will stick up for them.

CHUCK TODD:

Hey, David, explain this, we were talking about this earlier. Who are they? Is it a different evangelical voter that’s for Trump than is for– is it a different– explain the difference. You were telling me, there’s a difference between the Trump evangelical and the Cruz evangelical?

DAVID BRODY:

There is. There’s a nuance there. Look, first of all, we know evangelicals are not a monolithic group.

CHUCK TODD:

Of course not.

DAVID BRODY:

But a lot of these polls are self-identified evangelicals. So you have to kind of get, and I’m not trying to get on anyone’s case, if you will, but look, the reality is is that there is a certain type of evangelical that votes for Donald Trump, a little bit more of a cultural Christian if you will. But then there is the Bible study, Wednesday-night service, you know, the ones that you’re going to see at the potluck on Sunday. That’s the Ted Cruz vote.

CHUCK TODD:

That’s your Cruz person?

DAVID BRODY:

Yeah, those are the Cruz folks. But look, the reality is is that Donald Trump is still playing well with even some of those folks who go to service on Wednesday night. He’s crossing into both realms.

CHUCK TODD:

Last word, Tom?

TOM BROKAW:

Last word is, you’ve got to keep track of who loses here. Where do those votes go? That’s going to be critically important. Three or four people drop out, 40% of the vote they represent, where do they go when it comes to New Hampshire? So losing is as important as winning here.

CHUCK TODD:

Well, that’s what Iowa’s all about, losing sometimes. And then winning. Anyway, we’re back in a moment. We’re going to talk about the Democratic race and the man who has defied all expectations. Forget Trump, let’s talk about Sanders. He’s upended Hillary Clinton’s expected march to the nomination. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont joins me next.

* * *COMMERCIAL BREAK* * *

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. Now to the Democratic race, where independent Senator Bernie Sanders is running neck and neck with Hillary Clinton. He’s counting on young, enthusiastic supporters, many of whom have never caucused before to turn out tomorrow and put him over the top. If they do, it is likely to signal the beginning of a long battle for the nomination that few predicted just months ago. Senator Sanders joins me now from Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Senator, welcome back to Meet the Press, sir.

BERNIE SANDERS:

My pleasure.

CHUCK TODD:

Let me start with the importance of winning for your candidacy. Is there a path to the nomination without you upsetting Hillary Clinton here in Iowa first?

BERNIE SANDERS:

Well, Chuck, let me just say this. As you well know, when we began this campaign, we were at 3 percent in the polls. We were 50 points behind Hillary Clinton. Today, as you’ve indicated, we’re neck and neck. I think we have a real shot to win this, if there is a large voter turnout. And it’s not just young people. It is working-class people, it is middle-class people who are sick and tired of status-quo politics. That’s true in Iowa, it’s true in New Hampshire, it’s true all over this country. So to answer your question, yeah, I think we really do have a path toward victory because people want to see this country boldly move in a new direction so that not all wealth and income is going to the top 1 percent.

CHUCK TODD:

But don’t you have to win Iowa here if this is going to become a big, national campaign?

BERNIE SANDERS:

Well, there’s no question, you know, that what happens here is very, very important. And if we can win and pull off a major upset, it will really be a springboard I think to other states. But at the end of the day, I think in terms of the division of delegates, whether you win by two points or you lose by two points, it’s not going to matter a whole lot. But here’s the point. We are running a national campaign. We are strong, not just in New Hampshire, we’re gaining ground significantly in South Carolina and Nevada. We are strong all over this country.

CHUCK TODD:

I want to play for you something Secretary Clinton said Friday about your healthcare ideas and get you to respond to it. Here it is.

(BEGIN TAPE)

HILLARY CLINTON:

I don’t want us to be thrown back into a terrible, terrible national debate. I don’t want us to end up in gridlock. People can’t wait. People who have health emergencies can’t wait for us to have some theoretical debate about some better idea that will never, ever come to pass.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

Senator, I would say the biggest difference between her supporters and your supporters is her supporters will say, “You know, I really like what Senator Sanders is trying to talk about, but he can’t get his plans passed.” That’s essentially what Secretary Clinton is saying. What are you saying?

BERNIE SANDERS:

Well, first of all, what Secretary Clinton has implied throughout this campaign over the last month or two, that somehow I, who has spent my life fighting for universal healthcare, to guarantee health care to every man, woman, and child, to have the United States join the rest of the industrialized world in making healthcare a right, somehow I’m going to dismantle the healthcare system and leave millions of children without healthcare, or elderly people without healthcare. That is absolutely an outrageous and incorrect statement. Of course that will never happen. But at a time when we are spending three times more per person on healthcare than the people in the United Kingdom, far more than the people in other countries, we pay the highest cost for prescription drugs than the people elsewhere, yes, I think our vision is to move forward, to guarantee health care to every man, woman, and child in a cost-effective way.

CHUCK TODD:

But obviously, to pay for it, and to pay for a lot of your ideas, you’re going to be raising some taxes. Nancy Pelosi–

BERNIE SANDERS:

All right, Chuck–

CHUCK TODD:

–the head of the House Democrats, said this, “We’re not running on any platform of raising taxes.” It was an implied sort of, she didn’t want you at the top of the ticket with those House Democrats. What do you tell her?

BERNIE SANDERS:

You know, Chuck, Chuck, let’s just look at the facts. The facts are that we are spending far more than other countries on healthcare. My proposal will save middle class families thousands of dollars a year on their healthcare costs. Most people tell me, yes, they would be happy to pay $1,000 more in taxes if they’re paying $5,000 less in healthcare premiums. So you know, this is an issue where we have got to control healthcare costs, guarantee healthcare to all people, and do what every other major country on earth is doing. We have got to take on the drug companies who are ripping us off and the private insurance companies.

CHUCK TODD:

And you don’t think you’re going to be a problem for House Democrats who don’t want to run on raising taxes?

BERNIE SANDERS:

No, I think in fact, Hillary Clinton will be the problem. Because I think our campaign is the campaign that is generating excitement and energy that will result in a high voter turnout. Republicans win when voter turnout is low. Democrats win when voter turnout is high. I think our campaign is raising the issue about a rigged economy, a corrupt campaign finance system.

Secretary Clinton yesterday just announced, I suppose with pride, that her super PAC brought in $45 million. I don’t have a super PAC. Our average contribution is 27 bucks.

CHUCK TODD:

I want to ask you about your relationship with President Obama and a book you endorsed. President Obama, the most popular Democrat in this Des Moines Register poll. There is a book by Bill Press, it’s called Buyer’s Remorse: How Obama Let Progressives Down. Your name is featured as sort of the top endorser of the book. It said, “Bill Press makes the case… read this book.” In fairness to you, the “…” doesn’t have you saying anything negative about Barack Obama. But–

BERNIE SANDERS:

What it has me saying– Chuck, what it has me saying is what I believe, in that the next president must be extremely aggressive in bringing more people into the political process. I think Barack Obama has done a fantastic job against the incredible Republican obstructionism.

CHUCK TODD:

You don’t believe he’s let down progressives? So you think Bill Press is wrong?

BERNIE SANDERS:

What?

CHUCK TODD:

You don’t believe he’s let down progressives?

BERNIE SANDERS:

No, I think President Obama has done a fantastic job. The economy today is infinitely better than it was seven years ago. But what we have got to do is to involve people in the political process in a way that we have not done. The reason that the rich get richer and everybody else gets poorer, is big money controls what goes on in Congress. The antidote to that is a political revolution involving people in the political process. And that’s what my blurb was about. I don’t know what– yeah, go ahead.

CHUCK TODD:

Fair enough. The latest revelations about Secretary Clinton and her emails, do they give you any, you personally, any hesitation about her electability or about her honesty?

BERNIE SANDERS:

Well, here’s the issue, you know, as you well know, Chuck, and I’ve been asked every day, you know, by the media, “Attack Hillary Clinton, attack Hillary Clinton.” What I have chosen to do in this campaign is to focus on the issues facing working families and the middle class and not make personal attacks against Hillary Clinton. You know, I think this is a serious issue. I am not going to attack Hillary Clinton. The American people will have to make that judgment. What I am going to continue to focus on is why the middle class continues to disappear and we have massive levels of income and wealth inequality and why we have a corrupt campaign finance system, which allows billionaires to buy elections.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, Senator Sanders, I’ve got to leave it there. Stay safe on the trail. It’s going to be a fascinating 24 hours. Thanks very much.

BERNIE SANDERS:

Thank you.

CHUCK TODD:

Coming up the issue that has haunted Hillary Clinton more than any other this campaign season, did the e-mail problem just get worse for her? And what does it mean for Iowa Democrats on Monday night?

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. As you already know tomorrow Iowa voters will select candidates through the caucus system not a primary. But what exactly is a caucus? We’re here with your complicated answer.

(BEGIN TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

Caucuses are held in places like schools, churches, and government buildings. And it’s where voters gather, and show up in person to select their candidate at one of over 1600 precincts across Iowa. But in Iowa republicans and democrats caucus very differently. So let’s start with the republicans, it’s easier.

They show up at their caucus location, and cast a secret ballot for the candidate of their choice. Delegates are awarded proportionally based on their overall statewide vote total. Pretty straightforward, right? It’s basically an old-fashioned firehouse primary. Now, if only it were that simple for the democrats.

First, there are pitches from representatives of each candidate. Then, voters move around the caucus site – let’s say a high school gym – and gather with like minded supporters. Clinton supporters in one corner, Sanders backers in another, O’Malley folks in a third, and something called “undeclared” they meet as well. But, for example, if Martin O’Malley who is polling the lowest can’t receive at least 15 percent support at this site his supporters can go to another candidate or become undeclared. By the way, this works the same for the undeclared. If they don’t get 15 percent they have to choose among those who did meet the threshold. This all continues until viable candidates with at least 15 percent support or the undeclared group if they have 15 percent support remain.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

And by the way, when you’re watching the raw election returns tomorrow night we’ll get raw numbers of actual votes on the republican side and you’ll see hundreds of thousands. On the democratic side, it’ll only be a few hundred or a thousand or two because what you’ll see is adding up of local delegates. It’s a little bit confusing. So, you’ll just have to wait for somebody to say “so and so won, so and so won,” when NBC News declares it hopefully we can say “you can take it to the bank.” We’ll be back in a moment with the latest on those Clinton emails.

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

And we are back, panel is back. Tom Brokaw, Jennifer Jacobs, Joy-Ann Reid, and David Brody. We’ll start a little bit, I also talked to a bunch of Democrats at various Clinton and Sanders events. Let me give you a little taste of, given their case for why they’re passionate or pragmatic. Take a listen.

(BEGIN TAPE)

CLINTON SUPPORTER:

I like a lot of what Bernie says, but I think it’s more realistic to go with Hillary.

CHUCK TODD:

Did you caucus eight years ago?

CLINTON SUPPORTER:

Yes.

CHUCK TODD:

And who’d you caucus for then?

CLINTON SUPPORTER:

Barack. I felt the charisma of Obama, much more so than Hillary at that time, so.

CHUCK TODD:

And what about Hillary this time that makes you feel better?

CLINTON SUPPORTER:

The competition.

O’MALLEY SUPPORTER:

I’m going to start caucusing for O’Malley.

CHUCK TODD:

Okay.

O’MALLEY SUPPORTER:

If he’s not viable, then we will probably go to Bernie.

CHUCK TODD:

What’s been your hesitance on the Clintons?

SANDERS SUPPORTER:

Too much maybe establishment or something. I–

SANDERS SUPPORTER:

Well, Bernie talking about the big banks. And he’s taking money from them.

SANDERS SUPPORTER:

I think that at the end of the day, when he’s sitting down, thinking about what he’s going to do He genuinely cares about me.

UNDECIDED:

I like Sanders says because he’s a voice for other people. He proves that the gun laws also make all sense.

(END TAPE)

CHUCK TODD:

Yes, you didn’t mishear. That young man is undecided between Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz. So that one, I mean, only in Iowa. You can’t make that up. What was interesting there is you did get a taste from the voters that there is the Democrat voters thinking about, “Well, who can get the job done?” That seems to be your Hillary person.

And then there is some idealism with the Bernie folks. But your poll has a totally different story on this idea of enthusiasm. Bernie Sanders talks about his people are more enthusiastic. Look what your poll has.

JENNIFER JACOBS:

Exactly.

CHUCK TODD:

You’ve got Clinton people with more enthusiasm.

JENNIFER JACOBS:

Now–

CHUCK TODD:

What are we missing?

JENNIFER JACOBS:

They like her best for her strength and preparedness. That is true. That’s in the bottom line argument, is he had the empathy and vision. However, the conventional wisdom is that he has more enthusiasm. Not true. Our polls showed that she is winning on who would you be more enthusiastic as the nominee, she wins. And especially on the very enthusiastic, which is that really strong, strong passion. She gets 53 percent saying they will be very enthusiastic about her, only 49 percent for him.

CHUCK TODD:

Boy, there is nothing in this poll that suggests Sanders is going to win unless these first-time caucus goers surge.

JOY-ANN REID:

Right. I mean, the metrics for her are definitely better going into the caucus. But I think the reason you’re seeing the bigger turnout and the bigger, the more visible passion for Bernie Sanders, his candidacy really represents the two big disappointments of the progress wing, the most liberal wing of the Democratic party has to do with number one, no prosecutions of Wall Street bankers after the Great Recession, and number two, the fact that there was no public option or universal healthcare, I’m talking about the Medicare for all.

Those two pockets of resistance to the Obama years are driving the Bernie Sanders moment. It’s driven by an anger at Barack Obama. But the challenge is, you’re running essentially to succeed the Democratic president. So if you’re saying we need to repudiate the administration’s policies on bankers and on healthcare, well, you’re repudiating Barack Obama. It becomes very difficult to get Barack Obama supporters

JOY-ANN REID:

–to support you.

CHUCK TODD:

You mean the guy with the 90% favorable rating on the–

FEMALE VOICE:

Exactly.

CHUCK TODD:

–poll? Higher than both the current Democrats running?

TOM BROKAW:

Well, what they’re missing from the Democratic side, however, is what is the international policy, what are they going to do about ISIL– what are we going to do? We’re in a war. And there’s been almost no discussion on the Democratic side.

I asked Bernie Sanders the other day, he wandered all over the landscape, but clearly didn’t have an idea about how he would deal with what’s going on in the Middle East if he gets there. It’s almost all, at this point, very domestic. And some of the Iowa caucuses tomorrow night, Democratic caucuses, and see if there can be four components, you have the three candidates, and then the F.B.I. investigation.

CHUCK TODD:

But you bring up emails. Republicans are excited about email story, right David?

DAVID BRODY:

They want to start the general election now, absolutely.

CHUCK TODD:

They love it. Does it impact Democratic voters?

JENNIFER JACOBS:

Our polling has showed no, it doesn’t affect them.

TOM BROKAW:

I don’t think it’s there yet. I mean, quite honestly, I don’t think, I think it will be there, but in an unspoken way. But is it an explosion or is it a fizzle? That’s the part that–

JOY-ANN REID:

Well I mean, the line in The New York Times story that I think stands out most for Democrats is the information was not classified at the time it was sent. So as long as that is the case, Democrats are just missing this issue.

DAVID BRODY:

I think Bernie Sanders could do a lot more damage to Hillary Clinton, not necessarily bringing up the emails, the specific emails, but bringing up authenticity, bringing up establishment, bringing up here we go again. You know, this narrative that has already formed on Hillary Clinton. If he can continue to tap into that, that might be different.

CHUCK TODD:

But isn’t the issue, it’s interesting here. Has Bernie done enough to beat her? He does seem to be like he doesn’t want to go everywhere. Look, Barack Obama, he didn’t have any qualms about going after–

JOY-ANN REID:

He had no qualms.

CHUCK TODD:

–those trust issues–

JOY-ANN REID:

Right.

CHUCK TODD:

Turn the page. He went right at her. Bernie has held back push back-

JOY-ANN REID:

See, i think because of that same issue. This isn’t– for Democrats, this is not a change election. This is 1988. This is the attempt to continue the Obama legacy and to protect it. Hillary Clinton has a much easier argument to make. She’s wrapping her arms around the president and saying, “I will protect his legacy.” Bernie Sanders has to keep hedging from his real message, which is that I want to fundamentally change the Obama years–

CHUCK TODD:

He wants a big change, your right.

JOY-ANN REID:

–I want to overturn much of the Obama legacy.

JENNIFER JACOBS:

And every time he encroaches a little bit on her, they fire back really hard and say, “He’s playing dirty and he promised not to campaign negatively.” So– and then he’d kind of stepped back again.

TOM BROKAW:

Bernie Sanders reminds me a little bit of Howard Dean 12 years ago. And by the way, he had a lot of momentum on this program, on Sunday morning. Tim, me, Roger Simon, and others said, “Looks like Howard Dean’s going to pull it off. He’s going to get it.” Oops. Then he’s third. And a distant third at that. So there was an enormous amount of excitement around him that matches what Bernie Sanders.

CHUCK TODD:

You know, I talked to another gentleman in Mount Pleasant who said, he really goes, “I think they said he was going to go for Sanders.” I said, “Why do you think that?” He said, “Well, the Bernie people are louder.” You know, he said, “The Clinton people are softer.” And that’s what he took. But that goes to your Dean, the Dean people were louder in ’04, but that didn’t mean there were more of them.

DAVID BRODY:

That’s true. And I just want to, real quick, on the enthusiasm, polling that you showed there, it’s interesting. The more enthusiastic for Hillary Clinton as the nominee.

CHUCK TODD:

Yeah, there’s the key.

DAVID BRODY:

That’s the key. As the nominee. In other words, yeah, we’ll be enthusiastic because we want the White House back.

JENNIFER JACOBS:

Right.

DAVID BRODY:

That’s the issue.

JENNIFER JACOBS:

Yeah.

CHUCK TODD:

All right.

JENNIFER JACOBS:

There’s also a drive that they wanted a female president as well. 80 percent of Democratic likely caucus goers want a woman.

CHUCK TODD:

Well, 69 percent would be comfortable with a socialist. So that’s– so, by the way, in Iowa. We’ll be back in just 45 seconds with the endgame segment, and a surprise guest. Senator Rand Paul will join the panel. We’ll be right back.

***COMMERCIAL BREAK***

CHUCK TODD:

Endgame time and joining our panel right now, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky. Obviously, also running for the Republican nomination we wanted to squeeze in more candidates. Senator.

SEN. RAND PAUL:
Thanks for having us.

CHUCK TODD:
Well, what happened? What do you say what happened? I feel like your libertarian support was strong here when the year started. A year ago.

SEN. RAND PAUL:
Well, we still think it is. You know we have a thousand precinct chairs out of 1600. I think that’s more than any other candidate has announced. The young people in our Des Moines office if you get there there’s a hundred of them or more making phone calls. They’ve called a million Iowa voters. I think we’ve called them so much we know them by name by now. But no, we think we’re a lot stronger than the polls represent. Our strength is with the younger voter, and I have yet to meet a college kid or a kid just out of college who’s done a presidential poll. The polls are skewed older.

CHUCK TODD:
Do you think you and Sanders are fighting for the same voters?

SEN. RAND PAUL:

In some ways. He’s evinced a little bit of distrust you know of the bigger banks so have we. We think the biggest bank in the country, the Federal Reserve, really is the culprit for a lot of our woes as far as economic disparity.

TOM BROKAW:
Senator, I want to point to your wheelhouse if I can for just a moment. What’s been disappointing to me on the Republican side is that there’s been no sophisticated discussion about how we’re going to deal with a war in the Middle East. There’s a lot of talk about the veterans, that’s after they’ve served. They’ve come home badly wounded in many cases, psychologically and physically.

But there’s been no discussion about in a sophisticated way about how we’re going to deal with what the consequences are, and no call for a sacrifice on the people who are at home. We have less than one percent of our population in uniform and in harm’s way.

SEN. RAND PAUL:

Well I think the most important thing if you want to try and get to a place where we do defeat ISIS it means you have to have a ceasefire in Syria. So for those who are saying let’s bomb both sides, let’s just call them John McCain, wants to bomb both sides of that war, so does Rubio, they want to bomb Assad and ISIS at the same time, I think that’s a real mistake and won’t lead to a solution.

To those like Hillary Clinton and Rubio and others who say they want to have a no-fly zone over there and shoot down Russian jets, I mean Christie’s bragging about shooting down Russian jets. I think that’s a naivete that will lead to more problems and not make the world safer.

JOY-ANN REID:
Senator, to that point, the neoconservative wing of the party which I think you could say is represented by the Rubio candidacy, Chris Christie, does it surprise you that they still have so much resonance in a party that is war exhausted, in a country that is war exhausted.

SEN. RAND PAUL:

Well I think it’s interesting, The Des Moines Register did a poll, probably about a year ago and they said do you support more intervention in foreign war like John McCain or less intervention like Rand Paul. And it was actually pretty evenly split. So we think there are quite a few voters out there who are still war weary.

I think there are many who also think has regime change worked? I think toppling Hussein made Iran stronger. I think toppling Ghadafi made radical Islam stronger in Libya. So I think there’s a large argument, and I think we’re actually winning the historical argument, that toppling secular dictators in the Middle East has not made us safer. It’s actually made it more dangerous for us.

CHUCK TODD:
Jennifer?

JENNIFER JACOBS:

Your father got third place in Iowa, 20 percent. Do you think you can get anywhere close to that? Maybe our poll isn’t reading some of your supporters?

SEN. RAND PAUL:

The interesting thing about your poll is you asked in one of your last polls who did you vote for in 2012, and I think you got nine or 10 percent for my dad and he got 22 percent. So you’re really only finding half of his voters, I don’t think it’s on purpose, it’s just I don’t think your poll is finding them. I think the poll’s not finding young people, it’s also not finding independent voters who come and go in the Republican primary. And so I think we’re going to surprise a lot of people on monday.

DAVID BRODY:
You know, I’m curious about the libertarian aspect of all of this because when I go to Trump rallies I see a lot of libertarians there and I’m just wondering about that crossover appeal and if that’s hurt you at all?

SEN. RAND PAUL:

You know, I think most libertarians, or libertarian leaning people like myself, we don’t want to make the sand glow, we don’t want to carpet bomb the Middle East, we understand that if you have indiscriminate bombing over there you may create more terrorists than you actually kill. And so I think our voters are consolidating. I think audit the Fed was a defining moment for Ted Cruz, not showing up for that vote is going to hurt him with us losing any Liberty voters to him.

I think also Ted sort of wanting to have it both ways, particularly on the NSA. You saw his response in the debate to Rubio. Rubio said “Oh you voted for the NSA reform, you voted to weaken the NSA,” and Ted responded with “Oh no no i want the government to collect 100 percent of your cell phone records.” And it’s like, the Liberty voters we cringe when we hear people like Ted Cruz saying they want to collect all of our records, we don’t want the government in the business of collecting our phone records.

CHUCK TODD:
What do you have to do Monday night that says I’m going to New Hampshire?

SEN. RAND PAUL:

I think we have to be above expectation and we have to do very, very well. I’ve said that from the very beginning. You know, we’ve been sort of pushed out of the newscycle a little bit if you haven’t noticed.

CHUCK TODD:
It happens, it does happen.

SEN. RAND PAUL:

There are a lot of candidates out there, but no we have to exceed expectations and we have to do very well in Iowa. But you know, we’re already moving up. We’re fifth in the Des Moines Register Poll consistently. But we think we might get twice as much as what’s in there or three times as much. We think we can do much better than expected, we think we even have a chance of winning.

TOM BROKAW:
What happens to the people who don’t survive here in Iowa, where does their vote go when you get to New Hampshire in your judgement?

SEN. RAND PAUL:

I’m not exactly sure what happens. There are going to be four or five people that are not going to do very well here. I don’t think Christie, Kasich, Fiorina, I don’t think they’re going to do very well in Iowa. I think they move on because they think they’re going to do better in New Hampshire, But I think after Iowa and New Hampshire there is a reshuffling of the deck.

TOM BROKAW:
Well here’s my favorite motto for the week. There’s a place called Reagan, a very popular store with a lot of campaign slogans, and this is one of the most popular ones coming out of Iowa it says “I support the crazy one!”

CHUCK TODD:
Whoever that is!

TOM BROKAW:
Whoever it is–

CHUCK TODD:
On each side of the aisle.

TOM BROKAW:
They’re not attaching a name to it.

CHUCK TODD:
All right, hey thank you all, Senator Paul thank you. We’re going to be back next week from New Hampshire, but we’ve got coverage all day long, today, tomorrow, don’t miss it. Because if it’s Sunday, it’s Meet the Press.