Latest CNBC/Change Research Poll Shows Biden Maintains Lead Across All Six Battleground States
ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS, N.J., September 23, 2020 – CNBC and Change Research today announced the results of their latest joint “States of Play” poll, conducted September 18– September 20.
The poll finds that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump by four points (49% vs. 45%) among likely voters in the six major battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).
When it comes to voting in the general election during a pandemic, 71% of likely voters in the battleground states are confident that it will be safe for everyone who wants to vote to vote in person on Election Day. That is driven by Republicans, 94% of whom say they are very confident in the safety of voting on Election Day compared to 49% of Democrats, reflecting their greater concern about the coronavirus. While 39% of likely battleground voters say they intend to vote in person this year, nearly a third (32%) say they intend to vote by mail. The rest say they will vote early in person or are unsure. In North Carolina, 20% of likely voters say they intend to vote by mail on Election Day, the smallest percentage of the six battleground states.
CNBC and Change Research polled over 3,000 likely general election voters from the six previously noted battleground states, as well as over 1,400 likely general election voters nationally, to determine economic sentiment amongst voters. Additional key findings from the most recent CNBC/Change Research “States of Play” poll include:
· When asked about how serious their concerns are about coronavirus, 44% of likely battleground voters have very serious concerns while 21% have somewhat serious concerns.
· 36% of likely battleground voters say that they will definitely or probably get the COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available.
· As President Trump suggests a vaccine may be available by “a very special day,” 57% of likely battleground voters express concern that ‘President Trump is pushing to release a coronavirus vaccine too quickly in order to help his re-election chances.’
· When asked when their life will return to a sense of normalcy, 30% of likely battleground voters say they believe things will be normal in six months to a year from now and 28% say more than a year from now while 16% say life has already returned to normal.
· When asked how important the stock market performance is to their financial well-being, 20% of likely battleground voters say it is very important and 33% say it is somewhat important.
CNBC Washington D.C. Correspondent Eamon Javers and Reporter Kayla Tausche will reveal the results of the CNBC/Change Research “States of Play Poll” today, Wednesday, September 23 throughout CNBC’s Business Day programming with additional coverage on-air tomorrow, Thursday, September 24.
For more information on the survey including the full results and methodology and in-depth articles, go to: https://changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-14/.
Methodology:
Between September 18-20, 2020, Change Research surveyed 1,430 likely general election voters nationally and 3,018 likely general election voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin of error as traditionally calculated among the national sample is ±2.59% and among the battleground sample is ±1.79%. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Its Dynamic Online Sampling establishes and continuously rebalances advertising targets across region, age, gender, race, and partisanship to dynamically deliver large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. In the national survey and the survey of battleground states, post-stratification was done on gender, age, region, education, race, and 2016 presidential vote.
For additional methodological information, visit www.changeresearch.com/methodology.
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